Trade Alert #9: Sold ASML and GOOGL
And built a 40% position in this compounder.
February was one of the most important months since I started this newsletter. Because I sold two positions and used the proceeds to build what is now one of the largest holdings in my portfolio.
I’m going to share exactly what I sold and why. What did I buy?
Read on to find out.
What I Sold
ASML ~100% gain
I started building this position in November 2024 and kept adding through early 2025, between $668 and $750 at around 33x P/E. It was about a 5% position. At the time, ASML had sold off on weaker-than-expected orders and fears around China export restrictions.
Fast forward to Q4 2025: record revenue, 16% annual growth, the strongest booking quarter ever, and a shiny new buyback announced. The stock ripped back.
Here’s the thing. After that run, the forward P/E sat at ~41x. That’s about a 20% premium over the 15-year average of ~35x.
Using the FASTgraphs chart below: 20% consensus growth in the next 3-5 years, just like the historical growth but at a higher multiple. Slightly overvalued.
So, I sold exactly at the peak of $1470 (lucky). The easy money has been made. Could it keep running? Sure. If we get a market correction, I’ll buy it back, as the potential returns are 150% total or 16% annual in the next 5 years even with some multiple compression from 41x to 35x.
But valuation isn't the only reason; I believe my new position offers a better opportunity, and I'm hesitant to hold 100% gains in an AI play.
GOOGL ~80% gain
I first bought a tiny position back in mid-2022, when the stock was getting hammered alongside the rest of tech. Then I built the real position (as clients added more cash) in August through December 2024, adding more in early 2025, ending up with a ~5% position, mostly between $163 and $205 per share, around a 19x multiple. The stock had pulled back on a cocktail of fear: investors worried that AI chatbots like ChatGPT and SearchGPT could siphon users and ad dollars away from Google Search, while Alphabet’s announcement of $75 billion in 2025 capital expenditures raised alarms about margin compression. A DOJ antitrust ruling finding Google had illegally monopolized search added a regulatory overhang, though the market largely shrugged at the ruling itself; it was the AI disruption narrative doing the real damage.
The bears were wrong. Google Search didn’t collapse; AI Overviews actually drove search usage to record highs. Google Cloud became the headline story, with revenue surging 48% year-over-year to $17.7 billion in Q4, fueled by enterprise AI demand. Gemini crossed 750 million monthly active users, and the launch of Gemini 3 gave the “Google is behind in AI” narrative a quiet burial. All of a sudden (not really, it took years), Alphabet is the only company that owns the entire AI stack.
At ~26x forward earnings, Alphabet is no longer the “cheap mega-cap” it was a year ago. FASTgraphs tells the same story. Fully valued. So, I sold all of it at ~$315 for an 80% gain.
It is trading around 26x forward P/E with a 19% consensus growth in the next 5 years.
Potential returns through 2031 are 150% total, or 17% annually, using the historical 24x as the exit multiple. I think that is a reasonable assumption for a similar growth to the historical 18%.
Crazy for selling? Maybe.
What I Bought and My Current Portfolio
I used the proceeds from two sells and existing cash to fund a 40% position in a new company.
This stock has the potential to return 30-40% CAGR.
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